OUTLOOK for BOYLE and MERCER COUNTIES - KENTUCKY Disclaimer: This is not an official weather outlet . StormTracker Outlook is NOT created by a trained meteorologist. Go to National Weather Service (NWS) for an official forecast. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/ |
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Thursday, March 11, 2010
Summary: Winter weather has been quiet in Boyle and Mercer counties for a while now as described in discussions and outlooks below. While no major snow is anticipated some snow showers will occur this month.
About 2 weeks or so ago I posted on a blog the threat of severe storms especially to our south and sw. This has been the case the last couple of days. Also mentioned that thunder was possible in our area. This has or will occur. While I did not use the severe term for our counties strong storms are possible with possibly a severe storm or two.
After this weeks storms the next threat of thunderstorms looks to be late next weekend around the 21st.
Sunday, February 28, 2010 1:00pm
The outlook of no significant winter weather posted below held true and looks to hold thru Tuesday as expected for Mercer and Boyle. A half inch or inch of snow that quickly is gone IS NOT significant weather. Warmer weather continues to show signs of returning with spring not far away. Dont expect any huge quick warm up but it is coming. There continues to be no indication of any big winter weather makers for the near term.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010 12:37:08 PM
UPDATE Thursday 25th 1:30pm: Light snowfal in the past 24 hours resulted in an average of 1 inch or less. It was a borderline advisory but pretty much as expected. By definition there was no significant accumulations. Just typical snow showery central Kentucky winter weather.
While some snow will fall and even accumulate over the next few days I do not think it will meet advisory criteria in Mercer and Boyle counties. The next few days I would describe as typical winter. A few snow showers off and on with less than an inch at any one time on the ground and likely not that much. I expect it would quickly melt off during daylight hours.
For the period of early next week I have been tracking, I just cant find support for it to be a big snowmaker. What I have seen is that the actual storm clips southeast Ky. but mainly stays south and east of the state. The snow that will fall looks to come from the wrap around wind flow that does not favor Mercer and Boyle. Surface temperatures not being bitterly cold seem to be an issue as well. Trend of ten runs of the GFS have shown a steady decrease in potential snow from near 5 inches down to 0. In all those the air temp data was questionable. Even at its peak the best it is shown to do is an Advisory level system. If the actual track shift is more nnw then warm air would play havoc with precip type. NOGAPS and Ensembles lead me to beleive this as well.
Yes that time frame is still a ways out and things could easily change but presently I do not think its likely. The time after this looks to slowly warm into spring.
ADVANCE OUTLOOK FOR MERCER and BOYLE COUNTIES:
NOW thru Tuesday March 3
While some snow will fall significant accumulations are not anticipated.
Note: I do not post long comments on local blogs because more often than not they do not show up.
Monday, February 22, 2010 11:56:11 AM
UPDATE 11:59pm Monday:.........Weather models I have seen over the past 72 hours have not yet shown a high chance of accumulating snow as discussed below. The strength and track of the potential storm are greatly in doubt. Potential surface temperatures on current models are not conducive for significant accum even if there was to be snow falling. Info I have looked at tonight would not even give an Advisory level to Mercer and Boyle......This is still roughly several days out so modeling could change. ..The "POTENTIAL" of a significant winter weather maker does still exist but is in the low percentile........Sometime on Tuesday I will post an OUTLOOK.......That means rather than just telling you what I see on a model I will consider all this together to project what I think our actual weather in our counties will be......You can look at my maps page and links page to see some of the information and processes I use to come to a decision......Again, Keep in mind I AM NOT A METEOROLOGIST by any means.
The light snow that moves thru here this week should be insignificant, an inch or less and will be spread out over several hours.
The time frame of March 1-4 still offers the best shot at significant snow. From what I have seen a low pressure still forms in the gulf and another over the southeast and this shifts east northeast. Presently this has been pushed south by the GFS. The tendency this year has been for the shift to be wnw as it gets closer. Presently the accum potential has not been impressive. The time of season and the cold but not bitter cold temps could limit the accum even if a lot of snow falls. For Mercer and Boyle Counties it still looks as if it is leaning toward an Advisory event at best with possible accums somewhere between 1-4 inches. There remains great uncertainty about this.
I will post a first ADVANCE OUTLOOK on this potential tomorrow.
Sunday, February 21, 2010 12:09:51 AM
UPDATE 12:30pm Sunday: Latest model output is not impressive for the snow chances discussed here. Continues to look not to be a major event for our counties but worth watching.
Continuing to monitor the potential for a significant snow maker around March first to the fourth. The short version is potentially a storm moves from the western GOM northeast to off the mid atlantic coast. The most important thing I have noticed is that this storm chance consistently has been showing up in the models. If the model was correct that would give our counties around 4 inches of snow over a period of more than 24 hours that would make it an advisory level system. Right now just something to watch. I have just tonight began looking at that time frame closely.
Thursday, February 18, 2010 12:46:42 PM
ADVANCE OUTLOOK FOR BOYE/MERCER THRU TUESDAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIP EXPECTED FOR BOYLE and MERCER COUNTIES THRU TUESDAY.
All modeling I have seen indicates significant winter precip will stay well north of our counties. The weekend system is weak and the early week system will be to warm with a little back side snow. Of course it could change but is very unlikely.
In fact the next chance of significant winter weather looks to me to be between March 1-3 and that is what I will begin watching more closely.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010 11:44:58 AM
SUMMARY OF SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY
Snow began developing on Sunday afternoon across Boyle and Mercer Counties of Kentucky. Snow became more intense late Sunday night into Monday. On and off lighter accumulating snow continued thru Tuesday.
On average between 4-6 inches did accumulate during the period. This determined by personal observations, reports from people in the area. At one point snow drifts of up to 4 feet were reported in Mercer County by authorites in the town of Burgin.
This storm did not meet warning criteria in these two counties. To meet warning criteria 4 inches of snow must accum in six hours or 6 inches in twelve hours. That did not happen.
Was the outlook posted on this site accurate? You be the judge.
NEXT SYSTEM:
For Friday/Saturday I see at worst mixed precipitation. Temperatures not expected to be cold enough to support significant accumulation. At worst a low end precautionary Advisory. I will monitor that system but do not expect it to be worthy of an Advance Outlook posting.( Typically I only post/track systems that are likely to have accumulations widespread of more than 1 inch of ice or snow within 12-24 hours)
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY 2/21-2/23:
In short current look is warm air gets pushed north thru our counties keeping most precip liquid. Considerable rain. Thats from GFS med range. Obviously will need to watch trends and consistencies before anyone can speak with confidence about the time frame. The NOGAPS model supports this as well.
Because of great uncertainty I will delay posting an Advance Outlook on this until late Thursday but presently I am not impressed with winter precipitation chances for Mercer or Boyle counties.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010 12:30am
The next weather maker will likely occur between Friday-Sunday. Latest GFS long range suggest a mixed bag of weather rain/ice and snow. The storm track according to GFS would be near southern Tn/north Al. northeastward. That is likely to far south in reality. That track would make for minor accums for Boyle/Mercer. That would produce 1-3 inches of snow mixed with frz/r and rain. The one consistent thing is the mixed precip and that is the direction I am leaning. Due to the likelihood of some rain I am also favoring that it would be an Advisory level event for Mercer/Boyle that would be a minor impact to travel. Tuesday afternoon I will have seen enough data to post a realistic Advance Outlook for this coming event.
Monday, February 15, 2010 3:22:06 PM
While the current system is ongoing but in a lull lets look ahead to Friday-Saturday. The setup as I see it. Low pressure will be forming near the GOM while a weaker disturbance moves across the Ohio Valley. This could develope into something big for somebody. Surface temperatures will be an issue again for Boyle/Mercer near 32* but very cold after storm passage. There have been signs that ice could be a problem. Upper air temps seem to wanna stay below 32 on some model runs and that would translate to wet slushy snow. Too early to actually post an Advance Outlook on that system. The potential snow amounts "could" range from 1-5 inches based on what I have seen this far.
Saturday, February 13, 2010 2:45am
OUTLOOK for SUNDAY-TUESDAY:
Snow
Total snow accumulation 4-6 inches
Expected to be an WINTER STORM event.
No changes from earlier. I will let this stand and do a summary after the event
Friday, February 12, 2010 12:00:28 PM
Exact timing of this event is somewhat unclear. There will be a small window of time when the surface temperature will be at or slightly above freezing. Upper air modeling strongly suggest those temps will stay well below freezing. Using standard snow ratios the GFS long range I have been seeing is consistent with around 4 inches. I have some doubt if the snow ratios will go as high as some forcasters expect. Given the modeling it will be borderline storm criteria mainly because the snow will accumulate over a period of more than 12 hours. If higher snow ratios do play out it would blow that idea out of the water. Considering multiple runs of the GFS at one point it suggested 6 or 7 inches then dropped all the way to 2. This was due to modeling track, warm air invasion etc. Recent runs have begun pushing total back up by being a little colder , less rain etc.. The NAM is indicating 2-3 inches but is sometimes underdone and usually more accurate closer to event............It does still look as though the main thrust will come Sunday night into Monday.
Below is my updated outlook:(confidence high)
OUTLOOK for SUNDAY-TUESDAY:
Snow developing Sunday.
Snow Sunday night into Monday.
Total snow accumulation 4-6 inches.
Expected to be an WINTER STORM event.
Final Outlook Update before event will be ver late tonight/early Sat.
Thursday, February 11, 2010 12:30pm
Upper air temperatures for this weather maker look to stay below freezing. Surface temperatures on models suggest surface temperature will edge just above for a portion of the event. That would limit depth accumulation some. The consistent accum totals from the GFS long range suggest totals around 4 inches. Some forcasters site the potential of an intensification of the system while others are not considering that potential. I do think there will be a period of a mix at this point. Light or even intermittent moderate snow falling at a temp of 33-34* during the daylight hours would yield accumulations mostly in sheltered areas. Snow melts in open unsheltered areas even when the temperature is as low as 26* during the day unless there is a pretty thick cloud cover.
OUTLOOK for SUNDAY-MONDAY:
Snow possibly mixing with rain for a period on Sunday.
Mix back to all snow later on Sunday.
Snow Sunday night into Monday.
Total snow accumulation 2-5 inches.
Expected to be an ADVISORY event.
NEXT UPDATE ON FRIDAY.
Thursday, February 11, 2010 12:30am
Not enough information yet to post an outlook. Next update will be afternoon with more details.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010 2:24:09 PM
SUMMARY OF THE MONDAY NIGHT-WED.AFTERNOON SYSTEM:
Across Boyle and Mercer counties of Kentucky a mixture of precipitation fell with an average of 1.5 - 2.5 inches of accumulation thru Tuesday morning. Frozen precip changed to mostly rain near sunrise and the stuff on the ground compacted with some melting as the temperature rose to as high as 40* in eastern Boyle. Around 2pm precip changed back to snow. Thru late Tuesday afternoon thru Wednesday afternoon temps fell and accumulating snow returned. Additional accums of snow averaged 1-2 inches across both counties. These amounts were verified.
Total system accumulations were between 2-4 inches. There might have been some localized higher amounts.
Comparing the advance outlook with the result verifies the outlook.
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Now we get ready for the next one. Snow will fall some thru Saturday but no significant accum is anticipated. On Sunday- Tuesday another snow maker is in the cards. This looks to be capable of dropping up to 3-6 inches. Just now beginning to look over all the data and will post an outlook later tonight.
On a side note...National Weather Service winter storm watches and warnings and advisories are issued when specific significant amounts of frozen precip is expected to accumulate in a relatively short period of time. That is why they do not put a warning out say when 4 inches of snow is expected over a 2 day period.
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Sunday February 7, 2010 11:00 PM
A few changes to the outlook. The system precip shield will begin impacting Boyle and Mercer Monday night shortly after midnight and continue thru late Wednesday afternoon. Surface temperatures will warm above 32* thru late Tuesday afternoon. 850mb temperatures will rise and hover around freezing while the 500mb temps stay well below freezing. With that setup I expect a little bit of everything. The biggest question I have is just how much warm air gets in at the lower levels if the upper air temps stay below 32*. The modeling I have seen says the surface gets to 39. Without heavy precip it probably will. Because I have some doubt on this is the reason for a wider range of frozen precip accum potential.
OUTLOOK for BOYLE and MERCER COUNTIES
Late Monday Night thru Wednesday Afternoon:
Mixed precipitation thru late Tue. Afternoon with frozen accumulations of
1-3 inches.
Late Tuesday afternoon thru Wednesday afternoon snow accumulation of 1 inch with falling temps.
TOTAL SYSTEM WINTRY ACCUM of 2-4 inches.
Expected to meet Advisory or low end Storm criteria.
Saturday February 6, 2010 11:53:18 PM
Sunday late morning update: Freezing rain is becoming a greater concern. Its beginning to look like more of a mix of frz. rain, rain and snow. This would cut down on the snow totals but still be around 3 inches. This could still beeither an advisory or storm warning level system and the timing might be a few hours later. Will have to look at another set of models before I post a final outlook on this system later today....(this update posted 9:30am)
In the past the GFS model was always too cold and over zealous on precip amounts and the Nam was always not quiet zealous enough. With all the "improvements" in the models recently I am not quiet sure thats true any more. They seem less dependable now so one has to inject whatever knowledge they have into determining the likely reality.
There continues to be indication that some warm air will work into the Mon/Tue. storm. That has been consistent. However I am not convinced it will be enough to make the dominate precip type rain. I still am thinking it will mostly be snow with a dose of mix. I wont bore ya with the scientific jargon. I am scratching my head when I look at the big picture and see the watches posting west and north of Kentucky. With all that said here is my updated outlook for Mon/Tue with little to no change:
OUTLOOK: Monday thru Tuesday for Boyle and Mercer Counties
Mixed precipitation with temperatures hovering near freezing during the event.
Total frozen accumulations of 3-6 inches.
This is likely to meet Winter Storm criteria.
Next update sometime Sunday by 3pm. If I make a change its likely to be at that time.
POST TIME 11:55pm Saturday February 6, 2010
Summary of Fri/Sat Event for Boyle and Mercer Counties of Kentucky:
Let me start by saying I generally do not "nowcast" meaning I post my final outlook 1-2 days prior to the event. When it is here you can look out your window as well as I, lol.
The initial outlook was for an advisory type event and that never changed and that is what the NWS did in the end. The accum outlook was initially 2-4 inches. I made adjustments down to 1-3 inches with highest amount north Mercer and stuck to that. I outlooked snow to be late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Now, I fully expected the snow to begin between 10pm-1am and it did not. Its arrival was more around 3-4am. That delay cut down on the totals as well as the fact the temp hung 1-2 degrees warmer than ideal for snow accum with a wet unfrozen surface until sunrise.
In Boyle County on half inch was official. On the knobs its possible there was a little more. In Mercer County Harrosdsburg was a solid half inch or more. I had a report from the nw corner bordering Anderson County of 3 inches..
How good was it? You be the judge. You can send responses good , bad and the ugly to the email link at top of the page.
A couple pictures from this morning on the featured image page.
Friday, February 5, 2010 12:45pm
Good Afternoon folks!
The outlook for the current event is posted in the Thursday entry below.
The next system on Mon-Tue has me a little perplexed. For this area the GFS extended has been showing a period of time when the 850mb temp creeps up to 2* celsius while the 500mb temp stays at -20*c or lower. Meanwhile the surface temp for that short time is between 35-38*F. This setup has been on the last few runs.
With that temperature setup it could be rain, very wet snow or sleet. Now if the surface temp in reality turns out to be 32 then ice/freezing rain would be a huge concern. My instinct (and could be wrong) is that the surface would be a little colder.
Taking all that into consideration this is my updated outlook for Mon-Tue:
OUTLOOK: Monday thru Tuesday
Mixed precipitation with temperatures hovering near freezing during the event.
Total frozen accumulations of 3-6 inches.
This is likely to be an Advisory or Storm Warning event.
Next Update late tonight or Saturday.
Thursday, February 4, 2010 2:15pm
There has been little change in my assessment of the weather maker. I expect accumulating snow in Mercer and Boyle counties late Friday night into Saturday morning. I decided to leave the totals as is but the northern part of Mercer has the best chance at 3 inches. I will let the below outlook stand and lets see how it plays out. I will post a recap after the event.
OUTLOOK: Friday thru Saturday
Mixed precipitation changing to snow.
Total frozen precipitation of 1-3 inches.
This is likely to be a Winter Weather Advisory event.
Now onto the next weather maker. Everything I have read and sifted thru says this is a fickled system. Meaning so far its hard to get a firm grasp on. The expectation with this one could change greatly. Below is the first outlook for Mon/Tue.
OUTLOOK: Monday thru Tuesday
Snow with temperatures hovering near freezing during the event.
Total snow accumulations of 3-6 inches.
This is likely to be an Advisory or Storm Warning event.
Next update on the Monday system will be Friday.
Thursday, February 4, 2010 2:40am
I am not making any changes to the current outlook at this time.
OUTLOOK: Friday thru Saturday
Mixed precipitation changing to snow.
Total frozen precipitation of 1-3 inches.
This is likely to be a Winter Weather Advisory event.
There is another weather system being monitored Mon.-Wed of next week. More on that later.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010 12:10am
Wednesday midday update......Mixed precipitationrecipitation will begin on Thursday late. The bulk of this will fall as rain. It still looks like an Advisory level system . Impact should be minimal....An outlook update after midnight......Looking to Monday briefly, snow potentials for Mercer and Boyle counties look to be in the 3-6 inch range. Will begin posting an Outlook for this potential with next complete update.
OUTLOOK: Friday thru Saturday
Mixed precipitation changing to snow.
Total frozen precipitation of 1-3 inches.
This is likely to be a Winter Weather Advisory event.
There is another weather system being monitored Mon.-Wed of next week. More on that later.
Next update late today or early Thursday.
Tuesday February 2, 2010 12:30am
Tuesday Midday Update......No changes to the outlook. The snow line is very close to these counties. Those counties north and east have the highest chance right now of seeing the highest amounts. This is a system that wawrrants close watching as it can easily change. Also, this warming into the 40 degree range is temporary. Behind the coming storm arctic cold will again invade. Next full update will be after midnight tonight.
OUTLOOK: Friday thru Saturday
Rain changing to sleet changing to snow.
Total frozen precipitation of 2-4 inches.
This is likely to be a Winter Weather Advisory event.
Next update late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
Monday, February 01, 2010 12:37:44 AM
Our next significant winter weather looks like between Friday-Monday.
OUTLOOK:
Rain changing to sleet changing to snow.
Total frozen precipitation of 2-4 inches.
This is likely to be a Winter Weather Advisory event presently.
Next update late Monday night or Tuesday.
Saturday, January 30, 2010 10:42:01 PM (from the 18z GFS)
Next Possible Winter Storm: Between Friday-Monday
Temperatures: Critical between 32-36
Precip Type: Snow
Potential Amount: 3.9 inches
SUMMARY or FIRST LOOK:
Boyle County/Southern Mercer:
Next significant snow chance between Friday-Monday.
At this point it could be rain or snow.
If snow max. amount 4 inches.
